Odds On The Supreme Court Decision
The crowd-sourced odds market at Intrade puts the likelihood of the Supreme Court overturning the individual mandate – either in whole or in part – at 76.5%, up .5% since the Court announced on Monday that it would convene once more on Thursday to deliver opinions.
Which got me to thinking about what odds I would give the Court’s decision this week. And, with the knowledge that one should never listen to someone who predicts, I recall that it hasn’t stopped me before.
So, after having tracked this issue closely – from bill drafting to oral arguments – here is my two cents on what’s coming (though it may not be worth that much…).
45% Court strikes down entire Act
25% Court strikes down a portion of the Act
20% Court puts off a decision until ‘harm’ occurs
10% Court upholds entire Act