IHME predicts 900 lives could be saved in the coming months with a rapid vaccine rollout

The latest projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predict 3 million people will be vaccinated in Washington by May, through that number could reach 4 million individuals with a faster vaccine rollout.

The report indicates that the speed at which Washington is able to reach full vaccine delivery capacity will impact the number of COVID-related deaths in the coming months.


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Between January 19 and May 1, under what it deems the mostly likely scenario, the model projects there will be an additional 2,000 deaths (6,000 cumulative deaths) due to COVID in the state. As it stands now, during that time IHME estimates the vaccines will save 800 lives. This scenario assumes vaccine delivery will scale to full capacity over 90 days.

However, if the state can scale up the vaccine rollout to reach full delivery capacity in half the time, and if maximum doses delivered per day can double, an additional 100 lives (900 total) would be saved. A rapid rollout targeting high-risk individuals only could save 1,000 total lives compared to a no vaccine scenario, reads the report.


Image: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation


As of January 19, the report also estimates 7% of people in Washington have been infected with COVID-19. This infection rate estimate is below most other states in the US, where in some instances there have been over 25% infected.


Image: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation


By May 1, IHME predicts 25.6% of Washingtonians will be immune to the virus.

This article has been updated with the latest data from IHME.