Florida’s Medicaid caseload expected to hit new high

Florida’s Social Services Estimating Conference expects a total Medicaid caseload of 4.4 million individuals in fiscal year 2020-21, which is well above its previous peak of 4 million individuals in 2016-17.


Get the latest state-specific policy intelligence for the health care sector delivered to your inbox.


The caseload prediction remains higher throughout the forecast until the unemployment rate improves. The caseload is expected to grow to 4.6 million individuals in FY 2021-22, then decrease to 4.5 million in 2022-23, 4.4 million in FY 2023-24 and 4.3 million in 2024-25.

In 2020-21, 4,716 children received Medicaid. Next year, 4,762 children are expected to qualify.

While reductions in federal Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) funding attributable to the passage of of ACA are possible, they are not included in this forecast. The DSH reductions were scheduled to go into effect on Dec. 1, but are they delayed as part of a spending package that is currently being negotiated.

Expenditures for FY 2019-20 totaled $26,648 million. For FY 2020-21, program expenditures are expected to increase to $31,640 million, which is 18.7 percent above the 2019-20 fiscal year total. This level is higher than the appropriated level and higher than forecasted in August. Overall, the new forecast expects a surplus in general revenue funds for the current year of $342.8 million. For FY 2021-22, program expenditures are expected to increase to $32,566.8 million, which will be 2.9 percent above the new estimate for the 2020-21 fiscal year. The general revenue requirement for FY 2021-22 is $1,244.9 million above the FY 2021-22 base budget level.